Economic Impact of Trump's Victory

President-elect Donald Trump will undoubtedly have a profound and lasting impact on economic policy throughout his presidency. Costly business regulations are likely to be reduced or rolled back; rate-reducing, base-broadening, comprehensive tax reform will be under active consideration; and the leadership of the Federal Reserve will change in 2018.

 

The nation's low unemployment is placing pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise short-term interest rates, and those rates will influence many future policy decisions. The incoming Administration, in cooperation with a Republican-controlled Congress, will likely pursue policy that will boost GDP growth in the short run. However, if policy changes result in a growing deficit or overheating labor markets, interest rates will rise (faster) in response. Moreover, any policy changes that restrict trade will act as a drag on economic growth.